We are not experts (though our percentages are better than some of the experts, god dammit). If you go by these picks, you’re bound to be lose money. Though you never know: it’s entirely possible that you’ll be able to pay off all those student loans! Each week, two crazy, lazy writers at The Alabama Take give their best guess at the best bets with the lowest stress. It’s our college football picks of the week! You’ve had your turkey, now dig into this dish, you sons of bitches!
2018 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 20-16 (Week Twelve: 1-3)
T.D. Wood: 16-19-1 (Week Twelve: 0-3)
Cupcake Week put me out on a limb, had me picking four games rather than my usual three, and just about made a damn fool of me; now I want nothing but blood for this, our Rivalry Week. Lots of good games to be played and lots of good food to keep me full. On top of all that, there are a lot of lines that I like. I’ve whittled it down to three, though. Here’s what I think about perhaps the lowest lines I’ve picked all season. And Roll Tide!
Oklahoma (-3) at West Virginia: I like West Virginia at home, as one should, but not against Oklahoma, whose own Kyler Murray seems to be firing on all cylinders of late. Oklahoma is coming off a less-than-stellar win against Kansas. I say that because the Jayhawks managed to score 40, which concerns me about Oklahoma in this game. They don’t want it to become a shootout. But -3 is a nice number that I’ll take. Give me the Sooners. Lincoln Riley gets them one step closer to the Playoffs.
LSU (+3) at Texas A&M: If there’s a line that immediately jumped out at me and screamed “Put all your savings on this game!” it’s this one. That’s often a sign that those folks in Las Vegas know something that I don’t know because I’m thinking that there’s no way that the Bayou Bengals don’t walk out of Kyle Field with a big win on Saturday. Tell me how, exactly, that the Aggies are supposed to beat this tough-as-nails LSU team? I can’t quite figure it out, and I’m banking that Jimbo Fisher doesn’t have TAMU quite where he wants them, either. This time next year, we’ll all be singing a different tune about Texas A&M. Not this week.
Washington at Washington State (-2.5): Here’s another low line that I’m in love with. Yeah, yeah. With rivalries, you throw out the record book and anything can happen and the lines are meaningless and blow it out your ass. Mike Leach is one of my favorites. He and the Cougars surely helped me out last week. I think that Leach has a good team, and more importantly, he’s got them playing like he wants them to play. They’re having fun. This looks like State’s year to win the Pac-12. We’ll see. For this week, though, give me Wazzu in a two-touchdown win against the Huskies who just can’t put together a meaningful win this year.
As I write this, I’m watching the end of the Egg Bowl, and man do I love Rivalry Week (we’re also watching the Saints carve up the Falcons and good lord is that offense great). As for last weekend, looks like I overthought the whole “this week seems too easy” thing. This week can be tricky, but I like a lot of the lines out there.
Washington vs. Washington State (-2.5): Normally, I’d be waiting for Wazzu to throw up a shitty game and lose one they shouldn’t. However, I think the Cal game was their struggle game for the season. This team is not only good, but they believe in themselves and are on a mission to win the Pac-12. The division title is on the line, the Cougs are at home, and they haven’t won this game since 2012. I like Wazzu by a couple of scores.
West Georgia Cow College at Alabama (-24): The prevailing opinion during the Saban era has been that Alabama doesn’t cover big spreads. This team tells that opinion to go fuck itself. They’ve covered their last four ATS, due in large part to the defense coming together and starting to look like the best D in the country. The War Chickens have trouble stopping the pass, and that spells big time trouble for them in Bryant-Denny Stadium. We know the Gus Bus will throw every trick in his high school gimmicky playbook at the Tide, but it won’t work. Tua Tagovailoa will pick that secondary apart, and the D will dominate. Bama wins BIG.
South Carolina at Clemson (-26): Yes, another big spread, but man Clemson looks good and South Carolina does not (their record is a lie). Tigers will run all over the Gamecock D.
Kentucky (-16.5) at Louisville: “Can Kentucky even score 17 points?” you ask me. Against Louisville, me and my buddies could score 30, even after we all pull every muscle in our body on the first play. The Cardinals finally fired Bobby Petrino, and it’ll help them in the future, but this season is lost and the Wildcats have a shot at a 10-win season. Not to mention, Louisville has covered only once all year, and that by a half point. Need something else? Louisville gives up 271.5 rushing yards/game. That sound you hear is Benny Snell laughing.
Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.