Takes on College Football: Against the Spread, Week Four

Week Four! College football is full steam ahead! Each week two of the most unqualified writers at The Alabama Take will give our against-the-spread picks for a few college football games. We are not experts (though our percentages are much better than some). So check here before you call the bookie! It’s our best guess at the best bets with the lowest stress. It’s our college football picks of the week!

2019 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 9-0 (Week Three: 3-0)
TD Wood: 4-4-1 (Week Three: 2-1)

Blaine Duncan
Ugh, I don’t like any of the lines this week. And so far, by luck and by pluck, I’ve gone undefeated. With the disgust in the spreads and that much left to good fortune, proceed with caution this go ’round. (I still need to figure out how to make this column a pay-per-view deal!) A quick note: I’m writing my picks a day earlier than usual this week, so these lines could change, which I’ll attempt to address.

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9): Sparty isn’t tracking in the right direction, despite being 2-1. It’s like they ate dookie for breakfast! Of course their loss against Arizona State last week doesn’t guarantee a loss against Northwestern this week, but only managing to score a touchdown against the Sun Devils is concerning. No more dookie, huh? These two teams are evenly matched; it really is a tough one to call. If Northwestern were to get any more points, I’d really like this line. But I’m not in Vegas and can’t pull those strings. As it is, though, one always has to lean towards a home team that gets points no matter that it is one of those morning games that promises to be lackluster, like a gross dookie sandwich.

Michigan at Wisconsin (-3.5): Michigan still feels as if they were exposed against Army. Exposed, like, exposed-exposed. Even with a week off for Michigan, one would have to like Wisconsin playing at home and with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. He’s good! In case you didn’t notice, Army ran all over Jim Harbaugh’s defense. It’s not that surprising, either. I had Michigan picked to win the Big Ten, but I was more or less banking on the Wolverines stumbling into that championship game. That may not happen. In fact, I’d like to change that prediction right now and say that I think that Indiana will win the Big Ten. I like the Badgers here by at least seven, so jump on it even if that line moves a bit.

Notre Dame (+14.5) at Georgia: I should stay away — one of the first I’ve really doubted this season, but I don’t have much choice. Almost no games entice me this weekend. It comes down to the half a point, which is so dumb of me. Notre Dame can hang in there for a little while. They’ll be down by ten or fourteen points a lot, but the Irish will score here and there. They’ll keep fighting (see what I did there?), but they’ll down by a touchdown for the whole game. None of that feels like a surefire win for a bettor, but the Dawgs won’t win by more than twelve. If the line could move higher for the Irish, I would be a little more comfortable. If this one is a fifteen (or more) point victory for UGA, it’ll be a backdoor cover. In fact, it’s got backdoor written all over it. Stay away from this one. Please.

 ***

TD Wood
Man, Vegas sure knows what the hell they’re doing, don’t they? Yet another bad beat for me when Sakerlina pulled out a back door cover against Alabama. Big slate of games this weekend, with matchups between Top 25 teams in Madison, College Station, and Athens.

Michigan (+3.5) at Wisconsin: I picked the Wolverines to win the Big 10 and make the playoff, so I’m gonna stick with them here. Wisconsin might be the team I thought they were going to be last season. They haven’t allowed a point in their first two games. Then again, those games were against USF and Central Michigan. Michigan barely escaped Army, but that’s the kind of game that can wake a team up. The Wolverines dominated this matchup last season, and are still the more talented team.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-3.5): Auburn’s advantage on the line shouldn’t be overlooked, but Bo Nix is a true freshman walking into Kyle Field. He’s also a true freshman who hasn’t looked overly impressive. I believe that’ll be the deciding factor here, as Kellen Mond has what it takes to make plays when his line fails him.

Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5): Notre Dame is not good at stopping the run. Georgia just happens to not only be quite adept at running the ball, but they like to do it. The Bulldogs will jump out to a lead and grind the Irish down.

Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.