Here we are. Week Four, a quarter of the way through the season, the point where teams really start to round into form. It’s been good! Our records? Well, they could be better, but that’s why we’re here again. Let’s get some improvement and give everyone our best guess on the best bets! Week Four, here we come!
2021 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 5-3-1 (Week Three: 2-0-1)
TD Wood: 5-4 (Week Three: 2-1)
A push! How about that!? I don’t know how it happens but that over/under for Alabama at Florida was perfect by the time it moved to 60. I’m satisfied with the other two picks from last week. If you enjoy reading these, here’s something to mark: I’m feeling a mixture of wild and confident this week; it’s either going to pay off big or cause me to crash and burn.
Notre Dame at Wisconsin (-6.5) — Here’s one where the records will fool you. Wisconsin has the one loss in a close game against a Penn State who’s now on a roll after beating Auburn. Notre Dame is undefeated, but they haven’t played a team as good as Wisconsin: they’ve beaten a horrible Florida State team; Toledo, who scored 29 points on them; and Purdue, who isn’t near as good as they’ve been in the past. Wisconsin will win by a solid touchdown and extra point.
Iowa State at Baylor (+7) — Home dogs! First one of the year! It’s hard to pick against Matt Campbell, as his Iowa State teams are usually bankable against the spread; but this game is trending towards a Baylor outright victory. I see a possible upset here with the Bears taking down the Cyclones. (Just a note for myself more than anyone else: I really, really wanted to take West Virginia+17 here at Oklahoma, so we’ll see if I was a fool.)
UCLA (-4.5) at Stanford — Chip Kelly has the Bruins playing well enough to beat a Stanford team who isn’t consistent enough to garner wins over the faster PAC-12 units like UCLA. Yes, UCLA lost last week to Fresno State, but Fresno State may be quite good in a sneaky way. The Bruins should walk out of Stanford Stadium with a 12-point win.
Didn’t quite hit on that Friday night game, but nailed those two home dogs last week (although Florida kept it closer than the Bama fan in me liked). Not a lot to love on the slate this week, which usually means chaos looms.
Notre Dame (+6.5) vs Wisconsin (game played in Chicago) — While I mostly agree with Blaine, I actually think this’ll be the game the Irish finally come to play and keep it close if not outright win.
Nebraska at Michigan State (-5) — The Spartans look like they’re closer to the teams we were used to seeing under Mark Dantonio that played in 12 bowls in 13 seasons and won three Big Ten titles. Things were rough last year, but Mel Tucker looks to have them back on the right track. Nebraska… well, all credit for playing Oklahoma as tough as they did, but I don’t really trust them to keep it too close.
*Game of the Week* Texas A&M (-5) vs Arkansas (game played in Arlington, TX) — We’re about to find out what Arkansas is really about over the next few weeks. After this one, the Hogs go at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and home against Auburn. They’ve played extremely well so far, while A&M hasn’t looked like the challenger to Alabama everyone thought they’d be, at least on offense. The Aggies have looked great on D, though, which is why I think this one turns into a sloppy, stubborn affair that the Aggies take by a touchdown.
Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the MGM Sportsbook.