Knee deep into the football season, October, Halloween weekend. The only thing missing are the bets. Glad you came. You know what picks to avoid this Saturday. We’ve had some streaks in the past, sure. But we suck. Still, it’s our best guess on the best bets with the least stress.
2021 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 11-12-1 (Week Eight: 2-1)
TD Wood: 12-12 (Week Eight: 1-2)
It was a slight turnaround last week for me, but I’m going to need some undefeated weekends — several in a row — before I can match the might of my previous year’s percentage. And in truth, I still don’t like some of the lines this week and we’re nine weeks into the season! I make no promises. Plus, I see a lot of teams on the road making home fans upset.
Oregon State (-1.5) at Cal — Not many teams have found success slowing down Oregon State’s run game with B.J. Baylor, who actually tops the conference in rushing yards. Though on the road, I can’t see how the Beavers don’t get a touchdown win at the minimum against the very bad, no good Bears, who are destined for the cellar in the Pac-12 this year.
Ole Miss (+2.5) at Auburn — Make no mistake, picking against Auburn at home isn’t a bright move, but anyone would surely admit that Lane Kiffin’s got something cooking this year with the
Rebels Bears Ole Miss players. Also, I’m not so sure that Auburn’s dumbass, anti-vax Coach Harsin hasn’t drawn too much attention away from football with his dumbassery. Just get vaxxed, dude. Oh, and Ole Miss by a field goal.
Kentucky (+1) at Mississippi State — Look, I’m sensing a trend here: the dudes who are anti-vax are causing some issues. I ain’t saying that Mike Leach ain’t entertaining. I love the guy on the mic. But c’mon. And, don’t look now, but Kentucky could be playing for something bigger than they’ve gotten in a long, long time. Well, at least on the god damn football field. Yes, they were thrashed by Georgia, but an off week should help them find their footing against another set of Bulldogs, a team that isn’t near as deadly as the one in Athens. I see the Wildcats getting a field goal win in
Shithole Starkville. (For reference, this line has moved at the time of my writing versus TD’s pick below.)
Back down to Earth for me. Much better schedule this weekend, with a couple of big ones in the Big Ten, and a SEC West showdown. It’s also the last weekend before the first CFP rankings are released, so we’ll have a better idea of how the stretch run will shape up.
*Game of the Week* Michigan at Michigan State (+4) — This is a tough one. On the one hand, I’ll always lean towards Michigan losing in a big game. On the other, the Spartans defense is less than stellar. Thing is, their biggest weakness is defending the pass, and the Wolverines average less than 200 yards a game. I’ll take the home dog with the Heisman-contender running back.
Kentucky (Pick ’em) at Mississippi State — Why is this a pick ’em? I know State can get weird and fuck around and win games they shouldn’t, but Kentucky is just the better team, plain and simple.
Ole Miss (+2.5) at Auburn — The Tigers might be better than we realize, but the Rebels are by far the best offense they’ve seen, and I don’t think Bo Nix and company can’t keep up with the Lane Train.
Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the MGM Sportsbook.