Taking Bets | Penultimate Picks | Semifinals

2024 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 41-31 (Quarterfinals:: 2-2) 
TD Wood: 31-40-1 (Quarterfinals: 2-2)
Mallory McCormack: 35-37 (Quarterfinals: 0-4)
Greg Bosworth: 31-41 (Quarterfinals: 3-1)

And then there were four. It’s time for the semifinals! The Taking Bets writers give their penultimate picks for the college football season. The writers include host of The Staredown Mallory McCormack, host of Takin’ On Sports TD Wood, editor-in-chief Blaine Duncan, and co-host of Takin’ On Sports Greg Bosworth! 

Blaine Duncan
As is my tendency, I start hot and flame out. The same thing happened this year, but a couple more wins would help me stay in the black for this college football season. What a weird one. 

Penn State versus Notre Dame (UNDER: 45.5) - As I do not have a guess on who may win, I do think this game could be one of those where both teams grind it out, especially since the Irish have kept things on the lower end of the scoring spectrum. Give me the under. 

Ohio State versus Texas (+6) - Ohio State looks like a team on a roll, whereas Texas had trouble with Arizona State. Still, I like the quarterback play for Texas, one of their major strengths. 

TD Wood
I guess coming out even is better than that mess of a regular season I had. All things considered, this is a pretty damn fun-looking final four on paper. 

Notre Dame (-1.5) versus Penn State – I’ve said it for a few weeks now, but the Fighting Irish have been playing the best football in the country for the last month or so. They have a dominating defense, bruising running game, and a headstrong QB who makes plays when he needs to and controls the offense. Penn State is a worthy adversary, but I think the Irish come out on top in the end thanks to a steadier hand and better playmaking ability. 

Ohio State (-6) versus Texas – If there’s gonna be a blowout in the semis, my money’s on this being the culprit. Remember that thing I said about Notre Dame above? Well, Ohio State is playing the best football in the CFP. They’re finally playing up to the talent level of the roster, and it continues, I don’t see them losing to anyone. The Texas defense will present a great challenge, but I’m not sure the Longhorns have what it takes to take down the Buckeyes. 

Mallory McCormack
Not a single win for me in the quarters. Dang. I was hoping for more exciting games (instead I got it on social media as everyone thinks that Lane and his ex-wife Layla hard lauched a second go at it) and still felt a little let down. I think my picks showed that I wanted more chaos. Oh well, that was then, this is now. Let’s see if I can -- at least -- not go without a win in two rounds.  

Penn State versus Notre Dame (Under 45.5) - Well, this line did nothing to help me feel like I could pick either team since it’s at Notre Dame -1, so I’m going to go with the over/under. I gotta go under and hope for some big line play on both sides. 

Ohio State vs Texas (+6) - so this one is a little more intriguing to me. I feel like Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame have played the best football the last few weeks. But being in Jerry’s World which is the Longhorns backyard gives them a leg up (not a horn up, I don’t do that publicly).  Not saying Texas wins but I think they keep it close.  

Greg Bosworth 
Round Two of the college football playoff was definitely my most successful week of the season. Hopefully that momentum carries over to the semifinals and my betting winnings for all of 2025. That being said, we got our big-name Blue Blood Final Four a lot of people have been clamoring for since the playoff teams were announced, and the next two nights should be a lot of fun.

Penn State versus Notre Dame (Under 45.5) - This is going to be an old school rock fight or what good Ol' J.R. would say an old fashioned slobber knocker. It is going to be physical at the line of scrimmage and will come down to which team doesn’t turn the ball over and is able to make an occasional clutch passing play. For Penn State, it will be about containing Riley Leonard from those clutch first down runs, and for Notre Dame, it seems like they may need a little more success in the passing game than they got against Georgia to make it to the National Championship Game in Atlanta. The under seems the easiest pick in this evenly matched semifinal game, and I expect a 17-13, 20-17 type of game. It is kind of crazy to think that neither team has won a National Title since the 80s but find themselves right at the cusp of breaking that long streak. 

Ohio State (-6) verus Texas - This should be a fun one from Jerry’s World. The Buckeyes come into this game looking like world beaters after having annihilated Tennessee and Oregon. The offense is rolling with Smith and Egbuka, but if there is a team that can find success against this unit it might be the Longhorns' secondary. It will be fun to watch the battles down the field. For Texas, it is going to come down to whether they can run the ball successfully. When they win games often, the ground numbers are very impressive, and they will need some longer sustained drives to keep the Buckeyes offense on the sideline. Quinn Ewers is going to have to have the game of his life, and they can’t afford to have that lull in offensive production we’ve seen in the middle part of quite a few games this season -- or it will get ugly quick. I expect Ohio State to cover late, giving the Buckeyes an opportunity to win the first twelve-team playoff a decade after winning the first ever four-team playoff. 

Note: All games are against the spread. Odds are taken from MGM Grand Sportsbook.