Taking Bets | Are the Upsets Coming? | Quarterfinals

2024 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 39-29 (First Round: 2-2) 
TD Wood: 29-38-1 (First Round: 2-2)
Mallory McCormack: 35-33 (First Round: 2-2)
Greg Bosworth: 28-40 (First Round: 2-2)

The teams are now down to eight in the first twelve-team college football playoff. The Taking Bets writers wind down the year with the quarterfinals and their picks. Our writers are the host of The Staredown Mallory McCormack, host of Takin’ On Sports TD Wood, editor-in-chief Blaine Duncan, and co-host of Takin’ On Sports Greg Bosworth! 

Blaine Duncan
[Insert Paul Rudd gif] Look at us. All going fifty percent. What a shame.

Penn State (-11) versus Boise State - I would usually bet against James Franklin in big games, but maybe it’s just against Ohio State? I tried that method in the first round, and the Nittany Lions got a solid game and big win. Color me a little surprised. This is a bigger game, yes, but it is against a team that could be the caliber of SMU. Granted, Penn State is off of campus now, but I see them trucking Boise.  

Texas (-12.5) versus Arizona State - I hate to say strength of schedule, but I don’t know that Arizona State would be where they are today if they played in the SEC. It’s a hackneyed thing to write, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Sark will likely have an intelligent plan together to win and win big. 

Ohio State versus Oregon (+2.5) - I like this bet a lot. This one promises finally to be a barn burner in the playoffs and the Ducks have to muster another win against a stout Buckeyes. But here’s the thing: all they have to do here is not lose by three points. Give it to me. 

Notre Dame versus Georgia (UNDER: 45.5) - It’s hard as hell to find confidence in Georgia without their starting quarterback. Yet Kirby Smart – at least at this point – is the far better coach. He’s been in these situations. One would think that Georgia has to rely more on the run game. It’s obvious, but I’ll take the under. 

TD Wood
You know, I felt so good after being the only one to pick Notre Dame in the first round, and then…yeah. Welp, let’s get back to it. A really intriguing group of games in the quarterfinals, and hopefully we get some close contests so all of the whiners can shut the hell up and enjoy the sport they supposedly love.

Penn State versus Boise State (+11) – In a just world, this game would be contested on the blue turf in Boise. Alas, the Nittany Lions will meet the Broncos at the site of the ultimate underdogs’ greatest triumph. Boise’s win over Oklahoma was a once in a lifetime moment, but it’s now come full circle as the Broncos finally have an actual shot to take down a blue blood in a game that matters. I don’t know if they’ll win, but Ashton Jeanty and company will keep it close and make James Franklin’s squad sweat it out.

Texas (-12.5) versus Arizona State – I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I think in the end Texas will have too much depth and talent for the Sun Devils to handle. Arizona State has been a great story, but the Longhorns will ultimately prove too much to handle.

Ohio State (-2.5) versus Oregon – I picked the Buckeyes to win it all before the season, and while they made me question that more than once, their performance against Tennessee has made me hopeful again. Here’s hoping Ryan Day and Will Howard manage the clock better this time around.

Notre Dame (+1.5) versus Georgia – The Carson Beck injury has really thrown a wrench into this one. The Fighting Irish are playing better football than anyone at the moment, and this is their moment to finally get Marcus Freeman a signature win and throw the monkey off the program’s back that’s been there for three decades.

Mallory McCormack
So the committee got it…right-ish. And honestly when it goes to sixteen teams in 2026 just know you heard it here first. Also please let these games be more entertaining because if not I’ll have to rely on Lane’s Twitter feed…

Penn State versus Boise State (+11) - Penn State with a white out at noon was more than SMU could handle. But Jeanty has something to prove and I’m not sure if Boise wins but I do expect a closer game than 11

Texas (-12.5) versus Arizona State - Congrats to Dabo who got to meet Matthew McConaughey. And his team played tougher than most thought. But alright, alright, alright…ASU versus an SEC team? Nah, fam. We run this.  

Ohio State versus Oregon (+2.5) - I honestly am not sure what to even expect out of this game. The rule that Dan and the Ducks used earlier this year to win this matchup isn’t a factor anymore. And OSU looked dominate against Tennessee. But don’t expect Oregon to be lame ducks -- I think we get a similar outcome to the earlier game. 

Notre Dame versus Georgia (-1.5) - Well, here we are: the unknown QB versus the team that lost to NIU, and I’m going with the unknown QB. But listen, Linda, it’s because I know the SEC. And I know that our backup QBs like to prove themselves. So here we go. 

Greg Bosworth 
Despite the first round games not having much drama, seeing playoff home games was amazing. Hopefully we can see this second round move to home games as well one day.

Penn State (-11) versus Boise State - Everybody wants to see if Ashton Jeanty can put up big numbers on a power four defense. He put up big numbers at Oregon so this will give him another opportunity to show the doubters the opponent doesn’t matter. James Franklin had his team ready against SMU and it will be interesting to see if they can blow out another upstart. The Broncos are looking for respect, and Penn State in their biggest game in quite some time want to show they can win big games. I think Boise State keeps it close for a majority of the game, but the talent differential wins out and the Nittany Lions will be moving onto the semifinals.

Texas (-12.5) versus Arizona State - The Sun Devils' story is amazing, and they are a fun team. Kenny Dillingham is building something special in Tempe, and I don’t think this is a fluke. Cam Skattebo is electric and watching him run through people is so much fun. If there is a defense that can slow him down, it is the Longhorns. Texas has beaten everybody soundly not named Georgia, and though I would love to see the upset, I don’t think this is a good matchup. Texas, I think, will jump on them and take the drama out of the game early. Sark will have a good game plan in place, and he should have a field day against this ASU secondary. Longhorns roll onto the next round.

Ohio State (-2.5) versus Oregon - The Rose Bowl couldn’t have gotten a more classic matchup with a former PAC12 team battling against a Big 10 team. Plus, we got a classic the first time around in Eugene, and I expect the same in Pasadena -- if not even more so the second time around. It is hard to beat a team twice in a year, but if there is a team who can knock off the Buckeyes twice in a season, it would be Dan Lanning's Ducks. This is definitely the toughest game for me to pick, so I'm going to go with what seems the easiest and that is This is definitely the toughest game for me to pick and I’ve been going back and forth with this game since the Vols got destroyed in Columbus. I’m going to go out on a line and say Ryan Day gets the biggest win of his career and puts it that Michigan loss on the back burner.

Notre Dame (ML -105) versus Georgia – If there is time for Notre Dame to show they are in the same level as the other big boys of college football this is it. This is the best Notre Dame team that has ever made the playoff, and they won’t be getting blown out like previous Irish teams. Georgia is still good but this is the most vulnerable they’ve been in awhile. We’ll see how much not having Carson Beck effects this game or if Gunner Stockton having nearly a month to get ready is enough for the Bulldogs. I just have a feeling this is Marcus Freeman’s year and his team leaves New Orleans with their biggest win since maybe beating a Charlie Ward led Florida State team nearly 30 years ago.

Note: All games are against the spread. Odds are taken from MGM Grand Sportsbook.