Takes on College Football: Against the Spread, Week Eleven

We are not experts (though our percentages are better than some of the experts). If you go by these picks, you’re bound to be lose money. Though you never know: it’s entirely possible that you’ll be able to pay off all those student loans! Each week, two crazy, lazy writers at The Alabama Take give their best guess at the best bets with the lowest stress. It’s our college football picks of the week!

2018 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 17-12 (Week Ten: 2-1)
T.D. Wood: 14-16 (Week Ten: 1-2)

Blaine Duncan
I’m not sure if I’ll ever get a real-deal 3-0 for a week this season, but who am I to let failure stop me from trying? By the way, I only went 2-1 last week by half a point. (Thanks, Northwestern.) And boy has this season flown by! We are already in Week Eleven, and there are still some teams that I haven’t figured out. I feel like there are a few, though, that seem to be developing a pattern so that’s whom I’m picking this go around.

Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State: This line feels odd; it’s as if it’s too low. As much as I hate the Buckeyes, they are much more dependable than the Spartans this year, even if Michigan State tends to perform well as the underdog. Ohio State just has more on the line and the better team, especially on offense. Give me the Buckeyes by a touchdown here.

LSU (-12.5) at Arkansas: I’m not fond of taking two road favorites, but LSU, believe it or not, does fairly against the spread after taking their beatings from Bama. Plus, they’re a good, tough team. Arkansas is still rebuilding and/or in shambles, depending on how you look at it. (They’re in shambles.) I think the Bayou Bengals take it to the Razorbacks, get back on track, start thinking post-season bowls, and have a huge win.

Texas at Texas Tech (OVER 62): In all my years of watching spreads, there’s nothing as fun as taking the over, especially in Pac-12 and Big 12 games. Both Texas and Texas Tech have shown the ability to score this season. There have only been a few games for either team where the total didn’t reach into the 60s or above. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Raiders pull an upset at home, but the safer money is with the over.

 

T.D. Wood
Welp, another 1-2 week. The Tide rolled like I thought they would, and it appears as if I finally have to treat Michigan like a legit CFP contender (unless the wheels have come off in Happy Valley). Georgia flexed its muscles in Lexington, and in doing so clinched the SEC East to secure a Bama/UGA SEC Title game in Atlanta.

Washington State (-6) at Colorado: While there has been much talk of the Pac-12’s playoff chances being ruined at the hands of Stanford, Washington and USC, Washington State has fairly quietly gone 8-1, and is in prime position to win the Pac-12 North, and possibly even grab a playoff spot. The Buffaloes have fallen off a cliff sine their 5-0 start, losers of four-straight. The Cougars should have a field day with Colorado’s suspect pass defence.

Mississippi State at Alabama (-24): I’ve heard/read a lot of people calling this a possible trap game for the Tide. I get it: State has a legit defense, Bama is coming off a physically and emotionally taxing game against LSU, so the recipe is there. But, hear me out on this one: the Bulldogs have no concept of the forward pass. None. Like, even worse than LSU. And this game is in Tuscaloosa. Tide rolls easily.

Auburn at Georgia (-14): Nope, a last gasp win over Texas A&M is not gonna convince me the Tigers have righted the ship. The offense looks lost and can’t protect Stidham. They also have trouble stopping the run, and you know who runs the ball really well? The Georgia Bulldogs. UGA has made the LSU game seem like an aberration rather than anything telling, and they are hitting their stride at just the right time. Auburn fans continue to plot and figure out how to handle Gus Malzahn’s buyout.

Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.