Takes on College Football: Against the Spread, Week Ten

Though not quite this week, the college football season reaches its boiling point soon: on the horizon lies the match-ups that decide the playoff; the match-ups that will end many teams and fans’ dreams. No colossal games this week–anything but–yet sometimes weeks like these are where the mighty stumble. Here, we give our our best guess at the best bets with the lowest stress. Here are our college football picks of the week!

2019 ATS Record
Blaine Duncan: 17-9-1 (Week Nine: 3-0)
TD Wood: 13-13-1 (Week Nine: 2-1)

Blaine Duncan
Back at it again with the 3-0! Other than not calling for the outright upset of Oklahoma Sooners, it sort of played out like I thought last week. Just a fan note: I liked how Bama looked, but against Arkansas, I suppose that anyone would be exceptional. Let’s keep the ball rolling for Week Ten! Once again, I liked a lot of the lines this week; narrowing it down to three was tough, but here are my thoughts.

Michigan at Maryland (+22): Home dogs, my folks! It’s where the cash money is! Maryland has lost several games this season, of course, but they’re losing to quality opponents: a good Penn State, a ranked Minnesota, and a rising Indiana (who soon will be ranked). Maryland won’t take out Michigan, who are playing well of late to my surprise. But the Terrapins won’t lose by three touchdowns. They’ll keep it a bit closer than that on their home field.

Georgia at Florida (+6): This is hands down the best game of the week, good news for viewers of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. These two are fighting for the SEC East, they know it, and they’ll play every down like it. It’s a game that’ll be decided by a field goal in the middle of the fourth quarter. When you take into account that the Gators practically have home field advantage (the game is in Jacksonville, only 1.5 hours away from the University of Florida by car), as well as the notion that Georgia may have another loss in them, you know this is where it’ll happen. Not only does Florida and Stan Mullins beat the spread, but they’ll win outright. It sort of feels like another Florida year in the East. All the kids at Fest in Gainseville will rejoice with a Pabst.

UAB at Tennessee (-13): Want to know a secret? Tennessee has turned things around a bit. Granted, they’re only 3-5 overall, but they could very well win out: they’ve beaten both South Carolina and Mississippi State, formidable SEC opponents for a shit team like the Vols are this year. As for the Blazers coming in, they’ll get beat on both lines; Tennessee will get another win and it’ll be by two touchdowns. I don’t like it, you don’t like it, but it will happen. It’s smart money.

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TD Wood
Not the most glamourous slate of games today, but a couple that still have some important CFP/NY6 implications. I really need to go on a late-season run to get away from the 50% line.

Georgia vs. Florida (+6.5), game played in Jacksonville: As many thought before the season, this game will more than likely decide the SEC East winner. Neither offense can really hit big plays downfield, which is why I favor the Gators and the points. It looks to me like a more defensive-minded game, a low-scoring affair that should still be plenty entertaining.

SMU at Memphis (-6): SMU has had a great season so far, and it’s a really nice story to boot. But, make no mistake, Memphis is the better team, by a solid margin. Their sole loss was a controversial one at Temple, and the Tigers still have eyes on a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Mustangs will also be without star WR Reggie Roberson, Jr., and that should be enough to push Memphis past the spread.

Oregon (-3.5) at USC: The Ducks have been rolling since their opening season loss to Auburn, and they still have a playoff bid squarely on their mind. Oregon survived a couple of tough games the last two weeks, which might raise some more concern if the Trojans’ defense wasn’t so bad. USC might put up a fight for awhile, but Oregon should pull away in the second half.

Note: All games are Against the Spread. Odds are taken from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.